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1995-05-02
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rp
Running Performance Predictor
by Joseph M. Knapp
Given several running performances, this program will predict
performance at distances other than those given. The model used is
that average speed 'v' depends on distance 's' as follows:
v = v0 - v1 * log(s)
where v0 and v1 are constants
v0 ~ top speed
v1 = speed loss per order of magnitude of s
If you would plot your average speed versus distance on semi-log
paper, the points would fall on a straight line (for a given
level of exertion: e.g., "all out" or "training"). The level of
fit is surprisingly good for casual as well as world-class runners.
The well-known "nomograph" charts you see around seem to be based
on the same principle. It is easy to extrapolate or interpolate
to distances of interest once the best-fit line is found.
Least-squares analysis is done on the input data, which consist of
a file of 'events' where an event is a distance-time pair (e.g.
1 mile 4:00). There must be at least two events at different
distances to define the line! Multiple events at a given distance are
OK. Also, the more widely the distances are separated, the more reliable
the results will be. A one-mile time and a 10k time work well; a
five-mile and 10k don't.
With more than two events, the
correlation score (0-100) gives a measure
of the consistency of the data.
Note that the constants are only relatively constant: more interval
work, say, would increase v0, and better aerobic conditioning might
reduce v1. Data spanning months may be inconsistent if fitness
is changing rapidly.
rp takes three files as input:
distance units file: default 'dunits'
prediction distances file: default 'dlist'
event file: specified on command line
The function and format of each file is described below:
dunits - This file contains pairs of the alphanumeric
representation and value (in meters) of the distance
units that rp knows about. E.g.,
meters 1
kilometers 1000
miles 1609.4
marathon 42195
laps 400
hops 0.5
skips 1.2
dlist - This file contains a list of the distances that you
want rp to predict performance at.
Distance units must match those given in dunits,
although non-ambiguous abbreviations are allowed. E.g.,
800 meters
1000 me
1 mile
10 k
0.5 mar
1 mar
94000 hops
<event-file> - This file contains the data on
which rp will base its model. A data point
is a distance and a time, e.g.,
* This is a comment
* 1977 Data for Steve Ovett
400 meters 45.6 * Crystal Palace, June 18
1 mile 4:00 * Crystal Palace, June 18
0.5 mar 1:02:48 * Brighton, August 3
Time strings are entered in the natural way, hh:mm:ss, mm:ss, or ss.s
rp usage:
rp [-12 | -q] [-u <units-file>] [-l <distance-file>] <event-file>
where:
-u and -l override the default files
The default function is to predict performance at the
distances given in the distance file. Output is in
tabular form.
Alternatively:
-12 -> simulates the 12-minute fitness test given to
Air Force trainees to assess basic condition
(see Dr. Kenneth Cooper's books)
-q -> prompts you to enter a reference performance, then
prints out a list a performances that are of the
same 'quality'
Several files are included for experimentation.
E.g.,
rp alberto.sal
rp -12 mary.dec
Happy running!
J.KNAPP